DHFL Back in Green? Penny Stock?

Sabse pehle main ye bolunga ke DHFL stock me kya kya nahi hain

 

1. Bahut kharab financials
2. Fraud ka allegation against the original promoter wadhawan group
3. Loss making company
4. Profits going down consistently
5. Shareholders ke liye sardard
6. Operations se cash generation na ke barabar
7. Promoters ka abhi is company se koi lena dena nahi hai
8. Koi bada institution DHFL pe paisa nahi laga raha hai
9. Company ka degrwoth hua hai pichle 1 saal me

 

 

Ab aap bolenge ke itne saare kamiya ginane ke baad kaise is company pe koi invest kar sakta hai.

 

Main invest karne ke liye nahi bol raha hu, main bas ye keh raha hu ki ek bar iske latest Q4 results ko dekhenge to kuch interesting points saamne aa sakta hain. Q4 2021 me aisa kya hua?

 

1. 86.75 crore ka profit hua
2. Ye profit pichle eksaal me pehli baar hua hai, aur isliye important hai.

 

Isse pehle Q4 FY 20 me 7500 Crore, Q3 Fy21 me 13000 Crore ka loss dekh chuka hai ye company. Iske baad 96 crore ka profit matlab hai 13100 crore ke ek lamba jump. Ye jump matter karta hai, kyun ki profit bhale hi 96 crore dikhe aapko, lekin jump negative 13000 crore se kiya hai.

 

Interesting point ye hai ki total income lagbhag Fy 20 Q4 ke jaisa hi hai - 2000 Crore ke aas pass. Lekin 1 saal pehle jaha 7500 Crore ka loss tha, waha ab 96 crore ka munafa hai.

 

Shayad iska main reason hai RBI appointed administrator, jisne november 2019 se compnay ko sambhala hai. DHFL ke lenders ne company ko fraud announce kiya tha jab company ke promoters Wadhwaan group ke dono bhaiyon pe funds diversion ka mamla lagaya gaya tha. Matlab paisa ek jagah se doore jagah illegaly transfer karna. Kya ye wajah thi itne bade losses ki?

 

Ek quarter dekh ke nahi kaha jaa sakta. Lekin RBI ke administrator ke wajah se agar profit continue hua, yaani agar Q1 FY 22 me bhi profit dekhneko mila, to fir ye pakka kaha jaa sakega ki promoters ke galtiyon ke wajah se hi company dubi thi, aur sabse importantly, company ka inherent worth abhi bhi intact hai, aur ye investment ke layak hai.

 

Waise apne market janta ke emotions se chalta hai, wohi dekha gaya jab lagataar do din DHFL pe upper circuit laga. Ye quarter results ka hi nateeja hai.

 

Lekin kya ye penny stock future ke liye bhi sahi hai? Iske liye observe karna bahut zaroori hoga.

 

Lekin ek example aisa hai jisse pata chalta hai ki Pandemic ke wajah se NBFCs and bad banks ki halaat sudharna mushkil hai. Yes bank, jo similar situations ke wajah se niche gaya tha, aaj bhi apne purane mark se kaafi door hai, infact fluctuations ke saath wo aur bhi niche jaake trade ho raha hai.

 

Isliye sirf Quarter results nahi, magar kuch aisa chahiye hoga, jo DHFL ke lending business ka demand paida kare, Lockdown khatam hone ko hai, second wave shayad over hone wala hai kuch dino me, monsson accha hua to demand generate hogi, festive season ke time par. Is liye isko observ karna ya at last watchlist me rakh dena zaroori hoga.