Equity & Crypto Market Kyun Free Fall me Hain? Great Recession Aayega Kya?

 

2021 crypto aur equity market ke liye kaafi shaandaar raha, logon ne laakhon kamayein – jahan Bitcoin ne apna all time high toda wahin kaafi indian shares bhaari percentage mai bhi bhade. – waise hi jaise crypto coins bhadte hain 6000%, 3000% etc. Umeed thi ki 2021 ka scenario, 2022 mai bhi continue hoga, lekin kya pata tha ki 2022 aate hi market correction karega, continuously free fall mai rahega aur bullish se seedha bearish ho jayega…

 

Jiss tarike se 2022 mai tech stocks tezzi se gir rahein hain, logon ko apni naani toh yaad aa rahi hai par saathi mai yaad aa raha hai ‘the great dot com bubble bust’– Kya saal 2022 tech bubble bust ki ek shuruwaat hai? Kya tech stocks ka lagatar girna, aane waale global economic aur financial crisis ka tipping point hai? Kya great recession fir se aane waala hai ? Ya iss baar uss be bhi battar, 1929 Great Depression ka repeat telecast hone waala hai? – Aayie dekhte hain kya hone waala hai –

 

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Pichle hafte se, NIFTY aur SENSEX dono tezzi se gir rahein hai – ek hafte mai NIFTY 1000 points down aur SENSEX 2,500 points se zyada gir chukka hai…Global stock markets aur fastest growing companies’ ka bhi kuch yehi haal raha - chahe Nasdaq pe Netflix ho, ya NSE pe PayTM, sabhi jagah waahi haal hua – market decline aur free fall.

 

Crypto market mai bhi major sell-off ke wajah se hahakaar macha hua hai – Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, Binance Coin, XRP sabhi tezzi se gir rahein hain. Pichle 5 dino mai Bitcoin 18% gira aur Ether 27% tak down gaya.

 

Dono market ka iss tarah se girna, woh bhi tezzi se lagatar, day after day, jaise ki humne pehle kaha, humein ek global economic crisis ka yaad dilata hai – woh great recession jo saal 2008 mai aaya tha aur kisi mayhem se kam nahi tha

 

Kya Tha Yeh Great Recession?

 

Dot com bust ke thik baad, saal 2008 mai humne dekha tha ek major economic decline. Ye decline America mai thik 1.5 saal tak raha, par uske effects laghbagh 3 saal tak pure world mai dikhai diyein. Simple shabdon mai kaha jaye toh yeh crisis ki shuruwaat isiliye hui thi ki kaafi logon ne aise loans liye the jinhe woh afford bhi nahi kar sakte the – Kyun? kyunki government ne apne policies mai relaxation laya tha.

 

Lekin jab yehi relaxation khatam ho gaya, tab borrowers apna loan repay nahi kar paye – iska seedha asar banks pe hua, jisme kaafi investment banks phas gaye. Global investment banking company Lehman Brothers bankrupt ho gayi aur dekhte hi dekhte pura financial system crash ho gaya, jiska asar Europe mai aur kayi deshon mai bhi hua.

 

Unfortunately, aaj ka present scenario bhi humein kaafi hadd tak ‘the great recession’ ka warning de raha hai –

 

High debt, high inflation, negative global cues, Covid-19 aur free fall in stock-crypto market – kuch nahi toh market mai ek supply aur demand ka gap increase karne ka taakat rakhta hai.

 

Iske alawa hum sabhi jante hain ki, stock aur crypto market mai, retail investors ke hi nahi corporate houses ke bhi paise bhaari matra mai lage huye hain. Agar lagatar market crash hua toh logo ko hi nahi balki industries ko bhi negative asar hoga…

 

Aaj ke date mai kaafi log speculative trading kar rahe hain - jahan fundamentals pe nahi balki speculative prices pe kaafi log risk le rahe hain. Individual hi nahi institutional buyers bhi aise stocks bhaari matra mai kharid rahein hain - kya hoga inn stocks aur companies’ ka jab market continuously crash hoga. Logo ke paise toh doobenge hi balki excess debt aur bad loans bhi bhadega. Iss scenario mai logo ka buying capacity bhi kam ho jayega aur fir market mai chidega Mahabharat - oversupply, over production aur high prices ka!

 

Aisa hi kuch 1929 mai bhi hua tha jisse hum great depression ke naam se jaante hai…Uss samay bhi log over optimistic the aur kaafi haad tak logon ne speculative trading kiya tha jiske chalte 1929 ka depression aaya.

 

Toh Kya Ab Fir Great Recession v.2.0 aayega ya fir Great Depression ka Repeat Telecast Dekhne ko Milega?

 

Well, pehle ki tarah kuch nahi hoga – kyunki government, banks aur investment banking institutes sabhi pehle ki comparison mai aur bhi alert hain aur aise situation ko face karne ke liye unke paas pehle se hi antidote hai. Aur yehi reason hai ki chahe kaisa bhi situation aaye, government aur hum dono iss rough patch se aasani se float kar payenge.

 

Aap ko yaad dila dun jahan 2008 ka recession America aur European nations ko hila diya tha, wahin India economy mai itna severe effect nahi hua tha - kyunki humari export dependency kaafi kam thi aur aaj bhi aise kaafi cheezein hain jiske wajahse global market mai kitna bhi economy crisis aaye, hum kisi na kisi tarah se survive kar hi lenge. Bus yaad rakhiye ki humein satarak rehna hai aur kaafi sawdhani se apna kharcha aur investments karna hai. Speculative trading ke bajaye apna paisa fundamentals aur technical analysis ke basis pe hi karna hai.